Selling shovels instead of trying to find gold is an old piece of wisdom about booms and bubbles * It’s a cliché about booms and bubbles that you can probably more dependably make money from selling shovels than actually finding … Continued
Latest data show that the US dollar remains the dominant trading currency globally, and is still the pre-eminent foreign reserve currency, though slowly losing ground, mainly to other developed country currencies. * Perhaps the question I have been asked most … Continued
Debt rating agencies have no particular expertise or special information on sovereign debt, especially for developed economies, so their views don’t matter * News that Fitch downgraded the US sovereign debt rating from AAA (the highest rating) to AA+ (the … Continued
A crumb of comfort during the 2008/09 financial crisis was the thought that we were living through historic times. But to face another historic event barely a decade later is perhaps a bit much. The financial – macro relationship The … Continued
Recent news that the EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) is thinking of lending to Sub-Saharan Africa shows how institutions evolve to find new goals rather than quietly close down. The EBRD, which I believe enjoys a high reputation … Continued
We have had a long period of economic growth since the great recession of 2009, leading many market commentators to fear a recession is overdue. One fairly reliable indicator of coming recession is an inverted yield curve – meaning that … Continued
P2P (peer-to-peer) lending is the biggest and most developed form of alternative finance. But does it have any enduring value to add in the financial system? * P2P lending platforms have sprung up in many countries since the global financial crisis, … Continued
As we commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, which marked the point where the US financial system truly moved into crisis, it’s worth reviewing the innovations that led to the real estate bubble that lay behind Lehman’s … Continued
The high and rising level of Chinese corporate and local government debt has been a concern for several years. Recent data from the People’s Bank of China suggests the true figure may be much higher than we thought, but things … Continued
Former IMF Chief Economist Eswar Prasad’s excellent book Gaining Currency – The Rise of The Renminbi starts with a fascinating chapter on China’s monetary history, the longest by far of any country. The book is ultimately a persuasive answer to the … Continued
China’s corporate debt is high and rising fast. Most of it is in the state owned enterprise sector and is borrowed from state owned banks. So the debt problem and the responsibility for fixing it lies with the government. * Despite … Continued
Financial services are provided mainly in two ways: by banks and by markets. Here we outline the key features of financial markets * A market is a very general concept of any arrangement which brings together users for mutual advantage. … Continued
A condition for any market to work well is that consumers have enough information to make good decisions. This is rarely the case with services such as finance. * Theory, backed up by a lot of practical evidence, suggests that … Continued
What exactly is liquidity? The word liquidity is used in many different ways, often confusingly. It’s important to keep clear the centrally important concept of what liquidity is: the ability to turn assets into money quickly and at low cost. … Continued
The ever fascinating blog of the New York Fed tells us that, among the many different types of bank note issued by around 1,600 US banks during the nineteenth century, some included pictures of Santa Claus. Only in 1861 did the Federal … Continued