Demography, the study of population, is one of the few areas of the social sciences where long term predictions (over one or more decades) can have some value. This is because the dynamics of population growth depend on the current age structure (how many young versus old people), which is fixed in the short term,… Continue Reading
Category Archives: China
What has the world economy ever done for us? – EMBA elective reading 2 (*)
A lot of people in the richer economies appear doubtful that economic globalisation has been good for them. But there are hundreds of millions in the rest of the world for whom globalisation has been a critical part of their escape from poverty. * Globalisation means the greater international movement of goods and services, finance,… Continue Reading
Are we heading for a world like that of “1984”?
I think the world may be fragmenting into increasingly separate economic and cultural regions, one dominated by China, another led but not dominated by the US, with other nations watching and wondering how best to position themselves. This reminds me of the novel 1984. * When people refer to a world like that in George… Continue Reading
What’s the future for peer-to-peer lending?
P2P (peer-to-peer) lending is the biggest and most developed form of alternative finance. But does it have any enduring value to add in the financial system? * P2P lending platforms have sprung up in many countries since the global financial crisis, particularly in China, where they are now in crisis. According to research from the Cambridge… Continue Reading
Is China’s debt even higher than we thought?
The high and rising level of Chinese corporate and local government debt has been a concern for several years. Recent data from the People’s Bank of China suggests the true figure may be much higher than we thought, but things are far from clear. * It is conventional wisdom that China’s corporate debt is too… Continue Reading
Why are some countries richer than others?
The first part of my new MFin elective Understanding the World Economy and Financial System next term will explore the question, why are some countries richer than others? * One of the most important, interesting but hotly contested questions in economics is, why are some countries richer than others? The world is astonishingly unequal; the life… Continue Reading
Three interesting facts about Chinese monetary history
Former IMF Chief Economist Eswar Prasad’s excellent book Gaining Currency – The Rise of The Renminbi starts with a fascinating chapter on China’s monetary history, the longest by far of any country. The book is ultimately a persuasive answer to the question, will the RMB become a leading international currency? His answer is yes, but only… Continue Reading
The world in 2017
It’s generally agreed that we face an unusually uncertain outlook this year: elections in France and Germany, the path for the UK’s leaving of the European Union and above all, how will President Trump act? Underneath the political fog there are some fundamental forces that I think are worth thinking about, as a basis for… Continue Reading
US capitalism no longer works for most people
Single cause explanations of events such as Brexit or the Trump victory are too simple. But there is an important and worrying economic background fact to both, which is that the Anglo-US style of western capitalism seems to have stopped working for most people. * For several years I have been teaching a session for… Continue Reading
China’s growing debt problem
China’s corporate debt is high and rising fast. Most of it is in the state owned enterprise sector and is borrowed from state owned banks. So the debt problem and the responsibility for fixing it lies with the government. * Despite GDP growth that is still one of the highest in the world, China’s economic outlook… Continue Reading
Interview about Hinkley Point C and the Chinese reaction, on Cambridge TV
Dr Simon Taylor – Nuclear Power Continue Reading
The latest in the Hinkley Point C soap opera
The story of the proposed Hinkley Point C new nuclear power station in the UK has turned into a soap opera: a long running drama in which new plot developments occur regularly. The latest twist was that on the same day (28 July) that the board of EDF voted at last to proceed with the… Continue Reading
Letter from Guangxi
The second week of my recent China trip was spent in the hot, green and rapidly developing southern province of Guangxi. * My trips to China are usually to the Tier 1 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and more rarely to Guangzhou. In these places you see the full achievement of the country’s remarkable economic development.… Continue Reading
Some modestly good news in the energy world
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy was published last week. It contains two pieces of particularly encouraging information. First. in 2015 coal demand fell sharply. Second, carbon emissions from energy rose at the slowest rate for 25 years (other than the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis). The report is summarised by BP’s group chief… Continue Reading
在剑桥端午节 (Dragon Boat Festival in Cambridge)
The Dragon Boat Festival is one of the traditional Chinese holidays. As there are now many Chinese people around the world, it’s celebrated in many places outside China, including Cambridge. A feature of the festival is dragon boat racing. These are rowing boats with a dragon’s head and tail, where the rowers are urged on… Continue Reading