I recently visited Mumbai for the first time in over 10 years. A lot had changed and India may be poised to take over from China as the fastest growing major economy. * Mumbai is the commercial, financial and film-making … Continued
Since the collapse of communism, capitalism in its various different flavours is the only realistic option for countries wanting high living standards. But the US/UK variant is failing to deliver mass prosperity, which threatens to undermine it and generate a … Continued
UK nuclear plant may be a game changer China Daily is an English language newspaper, available in many hotels in China and published abroad. It’s often seen as a window (sometimes a rather opaque one) into Chinese government thinking, as … Continued
China’s $3.9 trillion foreign exchange reserves were not planned but arose as a side effect of a strategy, now ended, of keeping the RMB exchange rate lower than the market would have set it. * Last week I visited the … Continued
Peer to peer lending (P2PL) is an old idea given a new twist by the Internet: lending from households to businesses without a bank in between. P2P has flourished in the UK in recent years and is now growing fast … Continued
Ahead of a trip next week to Beijing to learn more about the lending business of China Minsheng Bank, I’m encouraged to see that the private sector is already flourishing in China. In December 2013, President Xi Jinping made clear the … Continued
Africa’s economic potential is usually thought to lie in its natural resources. But the continent’s people may be its greatest strength. One of the few areas where long term forecasts have some value is demography, the study of population size and structure. … Continued
Shadow banking is a term that was invented by Paul McCulley, the former chief economist of the giant fund manager PIMCO, in 2007. He was one of the first to identify and analyse the growth of chains of financial transactions … Continued
I recently gave a presentation to the Cambridge China Business Network, a student club. The title is “Like dismantling a nuclear bomb: liberalising the Chinese financial system”. The slides are shown below. Summary Liberalisation of a market means removing most … Continued
I have at last visited Shenzhen, one of China’s four first tier cities (along with Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen’s neighbour Guangzhou), as part of the Cambridge EMBA International Business Study Trip. It’s a likeable and impressive city, much greener and … Continued
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a great example of an institution that was created for one purpose – to police the system of fixed exchange rates set up in the 1944 Bretton Woods treaty – which has survived and … Continued
Ahead of attending the Cambridge-Beijing Forum on market reforms in China, hosted by Cambridge Judge Business School next month in Beijing, I thought I should check the official Chinese government position. The Chinese Premier (head of the State Council, loosely … Continued
I was recently asked to recommend blogs and other resources on the Chinese economy. In case other people would find it useful, I list the main ones here. Bear in mind that, not reading Chinese, I’m confined to English sources … Continued
The Chinese government is in the process of deregulating interest rates. It took the first step in July 2013 when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) freed the banks to set the rate charged to borrowers, other than some mortgage-related … Continued
It is widely agreed, including by the Chinese government, that the Chinese economy needs to be rebalanced if economic growth is to continue in the long term, without severe tensions or a full blown crisis. The heart of the problem … Continued