Letter from DC
It has been a long time since I walked the streets of the United States capital. Like Cambridge, much remains unchanged, but there are some telling alterations. I thought it was a sign of the times that on K street, … Continued
Poverty, aid and the flaw of averages
In recent years there has been a fierce debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid, with opponents such as William Easterly arguing that most is wasted and that it often props up regimes that harm their population’s long term future. … Continued
Chinese real estate really is in trouble
In case there hasn’t been enough bad news for you recently ($2bn loss at supposedly the world’s best managed bank, Greece heading for financial collapse, the UK back in recession, stubbornly weak employment data in the US) the evidence is … Continued
The Chinese (banks) are coming
Last week, amid all the fuss about the French and Greek elections, the Federal Reserve Board approved the acquisition by the world’s largest bank by value, ICBC (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China), of a majority stake in the Bank of East … Continued
Some new book recommendations (1): Why Nations Fail
Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson: “Why Nations Fail“ There have been many fascinating books in the last couple of decades on the big question of why some countries are rich and others poor, and the persistence of inequality over decades, … Continued
Financial repression, west and east
The FT has an article by their Beijing correspondent, Simon Rabinovitch, saying that Chinese customers are getting angry about the big banks’ ever growing profits, which are in part at the expense of depositors who receive a negative real interest rate. … Continued
China is (probably) already number one
2016, 2019, 2021, 2026. What do these dates have in common? They’re among the various predictions of investment banks and other pundits of when the Chinese economy will overtake that of the US to become the world’s largest. The most … Continued
The march of Chinese banks
Having just given two talks, in Singapore and Hong Kong, on the likelihood of Chinese banks, already the world’s most profitable, changing the world, it’s good to see my old boss Jamie Dimon agreeing with me. Dimon was quoted in … Continued
American consumerism: an historic perspective
Here’s a statement about the US consumer: “… certain dominant trends emerge: the increase in national income and in the purchasing power of a large section of the population; an increase in the availability of consumer credit; a sharp increment … Continued
Fortieth anniversary of US-China friendship
In one of the Star Trek films, there is a scene where Mr. Spock says to Captain Kirk, “On Vulcan we have a saying: only Nixon could go to China.” I think the context was a peace treaty between the … Continued
The changing balance of energy power
There is growing enthusiasm in the US around the possibility that US oil and gas output will rise sharply in the next decade, improving the US balance of payments and sharply reducing the power of OPEC and major gas exporters … Continued
Kissinger’s China disappoints
It has taken me about five months to finish “On China” by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Although I have faced several distractions along the way, including the desire to spend time with someone I love, that long … Continued
What the Chinese do with ice
At a time when very low temperatures are causing death and disruption across Europe (and there is about six cm of snow in Cambridge) here is a link to a set of amazing photos of the ice festival in Harbin, in … Continued
Chinese banks and the world
I recently gave a talk to Cambridge alumni on what I think the major Chinese banks might do in the future. I’m giving a version of the talk in Singapore and Hong Kong in February. There is a short video … Continued