Tag Archives: bonds

Is the US yield curve close to inverting – and does this mean a recession?

We have had a long period of economic growth since the great recession of 2009, leading many market commentators to fear a recession is overdue. One fairly reliable indicator of coming recession is an inverted yield curve – meaning that short term interest rates are above long term rates. This looks increasingly possible but is… Continue Reading

David Bowie innovated in finance too

David Bowie, among his many other creative achievements, was an innovator in finance, with the first ever intellectual property rights securitisation. * Nearly everyone seems to have been affected by the death of David Bowie, a uniquely creative and influential musical artist. I’ll add my own personal memories to the list. I think the first… Continue Reading

Analysing changes in long term interest rates: the term premium in US Treasury bonds

Long term interest rates, as captured by the yield on long term US Treasury Bonds, have recently swung upwards after falling for three decades. It’s still too soon to say that the long bull market in bonds has ended, because rates could fall again, but yields are at historically low levels still so the scope… Continue Reading

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