Tag Archives: interest rates

Is the US yield curve close to inverting – and does this mean a recession?

We have had a long period of economic growth since the great recession of 2009, leading many market commentators to fear a recession is overdue. One fairly reliable indicator of coming recession is an inverted yield curve – meaning that short term interest rates are above long term rates. This looks increasingly possible but is… Continue Reading

Changes in the Federal Reserve’s measurement of short term interest rates

The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, is making some changes to theĀ measurement and monitoring of the short term interest rate between banks, which isĀ its key target for monetary policy, * Most central banks have goals such as low inflation and high employment. After experimenting over the years with tools to achieve these goals, most… Continue Reading

Analysing changes in long term interest rates: the term premium in US Treasury bonds

Long term interest rates, as captured by the yield on long term US Treasury Bonds, have recently swung upwards after falling for three decades. It’s still too soon to say that the long bull market in bonds has ended, because rates could fall again, but yields are at historically low levels still so the scope… Continue Reading

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