It’s generally agreed that we face an unusually uncertain outlook this year: elections in France and Germany, the path for the UK’s leaving of the European Union and above all, how will President Trump act? Underneath the political fog there … Continued
I’m writing this in my hotel room in Shanghai. Being seven hours ahead of the UK meant that I had the doubtful privilege of watching the events unfold which led to the decision of a small majority of the British … Continued
The last time I was in Dublin, a few years ago, it was in the company of a woman I was in love with, the sun was shining (at least in my memory) and we were on holiday. My latest trip, … Continued
I’ve been asked a lot recently about my view on whether the UK should leave the European Union, which is the subject of a national referendum on June 23rd. I believe that in economic terms, there is very little that … Continued
Women’s access to health, education, economic opportunity and political power have been improving but the picture is very uneven geographically. Although most indicators improve with economic development the variation shows that a lot can be done even before countries reach … Continued
On 30 November 2015 the IMF voted to include the RMB (the Chinese “people’s currency” denominated in yuan) in the basket of currencies it uses to calculate the value of the Special Drawing Rights, from October 2016. This is largely … Continued
Most economist agree on the causes of the repeated crises of the Eurozone but that explanation is not the one that many governments, and the European Commission, want you to believe. * The problems of the Eurozone – bank failures, … Continued
The foreign exchange reserves held by governments, having risen for over a decade, have recently fallen. This is mainly because they are being used, as intended, to protect against turbulence in financial markets that would otherwise hurt the developing economies. … Continued
Debt is a contract but sometimes contracts must be broken, either in the mutual interests of the contracting parties or in the interests of justice. But it’s hard to come up with general rules for this. The long-running arguments about … Continued
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is abundantly endowed with natural resources, whose value has increased in recent decades. But this has not led to increased benefits for the majority of the people. A recent IMF working paper sheds more light on the … Continued
Greece this week repaid €750m to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which it funded by drawing on its SDR account at the IMF. This legitimate but unusual move caught many commentators by surprise and drew attention to the little known … Continued
Major world historical events such as the financial crisis that swept much of the world in 2007-09 typically have multiple causes. In 2014 there was an outpouring of new books about the causes of the First World War which started … Continued
As an economist, over the years I’ve been asked two things repeatedly by people who hold economics in touchingly high regard. One is, which way will house prices move? And the other is, what will happen to the value of … Continued
The current stand off in talks to renegotiate the Greek debt bailout shows the difficulty of achieving an outcome that could be good for both sides. * Why lenders sometimes rationally forgive part of a loan There is plenty of … Continued
I recently visited Mumbai for the first time in over 10 years. A lot had changed and India may be poised to take over from China as the fastest growing major economy. * Mumbai is the commercial, financial and film-making … Continued