Remember all the commentary on the impending disaster of US federal government deficits? Which would force the cutting or closure of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and anything that helps low income or economically unlucky people? Well the US still has … Continued
I’ve written before about the threat to the major gas exporters, such as Russia, of the sudden increase in prospective world gas supply from unconventional (shale) gas, first in the US but soon in other countries. My argument is from … Continued
A lot of hedge fund managers seem to believe that the Fed and other central banks that have been using unconventional monetary policy, specifically “quantitative easing” (see note 1), are dooming us to much higher inflation in future. Some believe … Continued
I had the impression that wage inflation in China, especially in the manufacturing heartland of the south, had pushed up wages relative to other low cost economies. But I hadn’t realised how big the gap had become. A new blog … Continued
You might find it odd that any country wants to join the Eurozone, given the continued mess the world’s second biggest economy is in. While the markets have stopped pricing in a high risk of the extreme event of a … Continued
Timothy Taylor’s blog comments on the latest World Bank Africa’s Pulse report, which has some encouraging data and analysis about the African economy. Having for so long been the laggard region of the world economy, sub-Saharan Africa has sometimes seen a … Continued
Many commentators use John Maynard Keynes’ quotation “In the long run we are all dead” to suggest that Keynes, and by association those economists today who urge a moderation of government austerity policies, didn’t care about the future. The implication … Continued
The economics blogosphere and now the mainstream financial press are full of discussion about the flaws in widely cited research done by Professors Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. These authors produced an excellent and path-breaking book This Time Is Different which … Continued
A New York Times article recently reported data from Rosenblatt Securities showing that the percentage of total US stock trading done “off-exchange” has risen from about 15% in 2008 to over 35% in 2013 and occasionally as high as 40%. What … Continued
I’ve written before about the remarkable speed at which non-conventional oil and gas, especially shale gas, are being discovered and (at least in the US) exploited. The effect of this on world energy markets is likely to be good for … Continued
I think Karl Marx somewhere said that common sense was a poor guide to understanding the social world. If he actually said this (I can’t find a source) he meant it from the perspective of someone trying to show that … Continued
Despite persistently low inflation since the global financial crisis, there are plenty of commentators and investors who predict inflation will rise. They base this on i) the huge increase in central bank balance sheets arising from unconventional monetary policy “quantitative … Continued
LinkedIn is a very useful tool which I’ve used for several years. It has become essential for job seekers and for finding out more about people that you do business with. Since you can use most of the services free … Continued
Experiments are the normal way in which science advances. You investigate whether A causes B and by how much, controlling for all of the other things that might make B happen. In the laboratory this is relatively easy. But in … Continued
It might seem straightforward to measure how much debt a government has. But it’s not that simple. First, we have to decide what is “debt”. We should obviously include debt securities and bank loans. But what about pension and insurance … Continued