2016, 2019, 2021, 2026. What do these dates have in common? They’re among the various predictions of investment banks and other pundits of when the Chinese economy will overtake that of the US to become the world’s largest. The most … Continued
The Institute for New Economic Thinking was founded two years ago with funding from George Soros. It held its first ever conference here in Cambridge, where possibly the greatest combination of leading economists ever assembled for one meeting debated how … Continued
Here’s a statement about the US consumer: “… certain dominant trends emerge: the increase in national income and in the purchasing power of a large section of the population; an increase in the availability of consumer credit; a sharp increment … Continued
There is growing enthusiasm in the US around the possibility that US oil and gas output will rise sharply in the next decade, improving the US balance of payments and sharply reducing the power of OPEC and major gas exporters … Continued
There’s an old, rather obscure joke with several variations that goes like this. Four people set out to write about elephants, from the US, the UK, France and Germany. The American writes a book called “Elephants for fun and profit.” … Continued
In the interests of balance, and because frankly I find it more convincing, I must mention another new report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, by Simon Johnson and Peter Boone. Called “The Eurozone Crisis Deepens“, it rather depressingly … Continued
Even for people who’ve lived their whole lives in the UK, the Scottish independence debate is a bit confusing and perplexing. For those from abroad I know it’s quite bizarre. Here’s some background to a period which might lead to … Continued
The ever-excellent analysis from the Peterson Institute of International Economics continues. A recent paper argues that the Euro mess will be resolved and will leave the European economy and Union stronger than before. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Kirkegaard argue conventionally … Continued
My old friend and economist at FTI Consulting, Alison Sprague, drew my attention to this graph, suggested for the BBC TV programme “Newsnight” by her colleague Vicky Pryce: There are several excellent graphs submitted by economists on the Newsnight website. … Continued
Amid the continuing arguments about whether the UK started to pack its bags ahead of leaving the EU last week, the more serious problem is that the Eurozone leaders have signed up for a future of deflation, recession and mass … Continued
Paul Krugman shows in his blog yesterday how relatively minor is the current British debt to GDP ratio by historic standards. I’ve used the same data source (IMF historical debt database) to show the UK and US data, going back to … Continued
As if the dismal state of European political leadership weren’t enough, we have further evidence of the deepening problem on the other side of the Atlantic in Ed Luce’s article in today’s Financial Times. One sentence caught my eye in … Continued
I normally try to be optimistic but we are living in difficult times. The risk of a calamity in the European economy is alarmingly high. While catastrophes such as the pan-European slump we are now threatened with have multiple causes, … Continued
As the Financial Times shows today, German bund (government bond) yields are now higher than British gilts. This is not something that the UK should feel great about as it reflects a general pessimism about the Eurozone prospects and a … Continued