One of the most basic problems to solve before you can have a successful economy is, how do you reassure investors that they won’t be expropriated? This problem arises because of the combination of two features of most investments. First, … Continued
Daniel Kahneman – Thinking, fast and slow Whenever I’m asked in future to recommend a book on behavioural finance, I shall enthusiastically suggest this one. Although it’s not limited to behavioural finance or even its wider relation behavioural economics, the … Continued
Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson: “Why Nations Fail“ There have been many fascinating books in the last couple of decades on the big question of why some countries are rich and others poor, and the persistence of inequality over decades, … Continued
At a time when oil prices are around their all time highs it may seem odd to be thinking of how lower hydrocarbon prices will affect the world. But there is a growing sense in the US that longer term … Continued
2016, 2019, 2021, 2026. What do these dates have in common? They’re among the various predictions of investment banks and other pundits of when the Chinese economy will overtake that of the US to become the world’s largest. The most … Continued
The Institute for New Economic Thinking was founded two years ago with funding from George Soros. It held its first ever conference here in Cambridge, where possibly the greatest combination of leading economists ever assembled for one meeting debated how … Continued
Here’s a statement about the US consumer: “… certain dominant trends emerge: the increase in national income and in the purchasing power of a large section of the population; an increase in the availability of consumer credit; a sharp increment … Continued
There is growing enthusiasm in the US around the possibility that US oil and gas output will rise sharply in the next decade, improving the US balance of payments and sharply reducing the power of OPEC and major gas exporters … Continued
There’s an old, rather obscure joke with several variations that goes like this. Four people set out to write about elephants, from the US, the UK, France and Germany. The American writes a book called “Elephants for fun and profit.” … Continued
In the interests of balance, and because frankly I find it more convincing, I must mention another new report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, by Simon Johnson and Peter Boone. Called “The Eurozone Crisis Deepens“, it rather depressingly … Continued
Even for people who’ve lived their whole lives in the UK, the Scottish independence debate is a bit confusing and perplexing. For those from abroad I know it’s quite bizarre. Here’s some background to a period which might lead to … Continued
The ever-excellent analysis from the Peterson Institute of International Economics continues. A recent paper argues that the Euro mess will be resolved and will leave the European economy and Union stronger than before. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Kirkegaard argue conventionally … Continued
My old friend and economist at FTI Consulting, Alison Sprague, drew my attention to this graph, suggested for the BBC TV programme “Newsnight” by her colleague Vicky Pryce: There are several excellent graphs submitted by economists on the Newsnight website. … Continued
Amid the continuing arguments about whether the UK started to pack its bags ahead of leaving the EU last week, the more serious problem is that the Eurozone leaders have signed up for a future of deflation, recession and mass … Continued